2024 Catch Probability Data
This graphic shows catch probabilities from real fly balls at every MLB ballpark, with accurate stadium measurements using a 5-point fence drawing system. It also includes the batter/fielder who hit/caught the specific fly ball, exit velocity, launch angle, and distance traveled:
(For clarity, this model represents 50% of all fly balls hit during the 2024 MLB season. Data is gathered from Statcast and Baseball Savant. Also, fly balls with a 90-100% chance of being caught are excluded for the purpose of clearing up space)
Here is a graphic that allows you to take any one of MLB’s top 50 rostered outfielders in 2024 and simulate a fly ball, calculating their catch probability using the same method as MLB’s Statcast:
Sprint Speed
27.3 ft/s
Catch Probability
--%
Distance to Ball
--
Click any dot on the field to simulate a fly ball.
This model represents one of MLB’s statcast methods of using sprint speed to determine the chances of a fly ball being caught depending on who is playing the outfield, before the ball is even hit.
Why Does This Matter?
Based on the dataset of 50 outfielders, the 2024 roster displays a sprint speed range from 24.8 ft/s (Giancarlo Stanton) to 30.5 ft/s (Bobby Witt Jr.), with the league average hovering around 27.0 ft/s. While a difference of just 3-4 feet per second may seem negligible on paper, it translates to a massive difference in defensive range over the course of a fly ball’s hang time. An elite runner like Witt Jr. or Trea Turner can cover approximately 15 to 20 more feet of ground than a power hitter like Stanton or Schwarber during a typical 4-5 second fly ball play. This extra coverage expands their effective “catch radius” exponentially—meaning an elite defender doesn’t just catch balls hit further away, they can effectively patrol a circular area nearly 30-40% larger than their slower counterparts, turning potential gap doubles into routine outs.